An Integrated Assessment of the Effects of Climate
Climate Change

Change on a National Park and Its Gateway

 Estes Park Vallley

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N. Thompson Hobbs, Dennis Ojima, John B. Loomis, Stephan A. Weiler, David M. Theobald , Alan P. Covich, Jill S. Baron, Mallory McDuff, Michael B. Coughenour,
. David J. Cooper
Project Overview Stakeholder Process Climate Scenarios Visitation Effects Natural Systems Modeling

Project Overview
Gateway communities are concentrations of human population and commerce in close proximity to conservation areas. We are assessing potential effects of changes in climate on Rocky Mountain National Park and its gateway community, Estes Park Colorado. Specifically, our objectives are to:
  • Assess the potential consequences of changing climate for landscape structure, aquatic biota, terrestrial wildlife and native plant communities.
  • Extend these biotic effects to predict likely changes in visitation and the implications of those changes for the local economy.
  • Based on the understanding gained above, help stakeholders identify and evaluate potential ways to respond to a changing landscape and climatic context.
In gateway communities like Estes Park, natural processes are tightly linked to commerce by the behavior of Park visitors (Figure 1). To represent this link, we are investigating responses of visitors to direct effects of a changing climate (e.g., seasonal shifts in opening of roads and trails) as well as responses to indirect effects mediated by changes in the natural system (e.g., changes in wildlife populations, landscape structure, aquatic biota). Using human responses to mediate climate and land-use drivers, we will extend effects of climate change to the local economy.

Figure 1. We are investigating direct effects of climate change on the natural systems of Rocky Mountain National Park. We are studying indirect effects of climate change on the human system in Estes Park mediated by changes in visitation. We use our understanding of effects of visitation to project changes in local economic performance.

Objectives

  • Assess effects of a changing climate on biotic systems in the Park.
  • Predict changes in visitation.
  • Forecast effects on local economy.
  • Evaluate ways to respond.