Session #2: Local ecosystem effects of climate change: The interaction between climate, societal decisions, and ecosystems. Organized by: J.S. Baron, D.S. Ojima, N.T. Hobbs, and A.C. Covich.
Monday, August 6, 2001. Madison Ballroom A

Climate change, society, and ecosystems: Interactions in the Great Plains

Jill Lackett¹, Dennis Ojima¹, Kathleen Galvin¹, Lenora Bohren¹.

Colorado State University ¹

ABSTRACT- This paper will discuss the projected climate changes in the Great Plains region over the next century, possible coping strategies to deal with these changes, and the implications that climate changes and adaptation to changes may have on ecosystems and society in the region. Because agriculture and ranching are so prevalent in the Great Plains, many residents rely on the natural resources of the region to make a living. Therefore, climate affects every aspect of their lives. The possible changes in the climate of the region projected by two GCMs over the next century include a warming in the region (+ 4 to 6C), an altered pattern of precipitation, and the possibility of more severe weather. Coping strategies to deal with climatic changes include establishing new storage areas for water, increasing soil organic matter in order to increase water holding capacity, and diversifying to take advantage of opportunities that may be presented under a changed climate. These climatic changes and coping strategies in turn will affect society and ecosystem processes. The paper will conclude with a presentation of data gathered by interviews with operators in the Great Plains. It was found that environmental factors, namely, soil conditions, moisture, and knowledge of the land were the most important factors in land use decisions. These factors will be altered under a changed climate, therefore, decision-making must reflect consideration of the changed conditions.

KEYWORDS- climate change, adaptation