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Session #2: Local ecosystem effects of climate change: The interaction between climate, societal decisions, and ecosystems. Organized by: J.S. Baron, D.S. Ojima, N.T. Hobbs, and A.C. Covich.
Monday, August 6, 2001. Madison Ballroom A

The interactions of climate, society, and natural resources in the mid-Atlantic U.S.

Ann Fisher¹.

Penn State University ¹

ABSTRACT- The Mid-Atlantic Regional Assessment (MARA) Phase I activities were conducted as part of the First US National Assessment of potential consequences of climate variability and change. The MARA Advisory Committee, composed of a spectrum of stakeholders, had an integral role in planning the assessment. In response to their concerns, ecological impacts were examined as a cross-cutting issue for the region. The initial identification of likely impacts (e.g., substantial shifts in dominant tree species, fewer migratory waterfowl in the Chesapeake Bay, a net decline in the number of warbler species in the Mid-Atlantic region, fewer cold-water fish but more warm-water fish) leads to questions about the technical feasibility of protecting ecosystems and their functioning, and to questions about societal willingness to expend the resources required to accomplish protection. Because society's many goals all require resources, choices will have to be made about which natural ecosystems will have their integrity maintained and what ecological functions will be protected in human-dominated landscapes. Impacts that manifest themselves in the marketplace (e.g., higher prices for black cherry hardwoods) are amenable to existing measurement techniques, but many ecological impacts are not reflected in markets. Our team's continuing research explores perceptions of ecosystems and their functioning, to make it possible to estimate society's values for specific ecological changes. The intent is to improve congruence between scientists' and decision makers' judgments about what ecosystems and ecosystem functions are most important to protect or restore. The goal is to develop models and estimates that can be used to inform decisions about sustaining and restoring complex ecosystems. This presentation will highlight our progress in model development. If OMB approval is received soon enough, it also will report preliminary results from a case study in Cape May County, NJ.

KEYWORDS- regional impacts of climate change, valuing ecological changes, integrated regional assessment, perceptions of ecosystems and their functioning