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Session #2: Local ecosystem effects of climate change: The interaction between climate, societal decisions, and ecosystems. Organized by: J.S. Baron, D.S. Ojima, N.T. Hobbs, and A.C. Covich.
Monday, August 6, 2001. Madison Ballroom A

Confronting climate change in California

Christopher Field¹, Gretchen Daily², Frank Davis³, Steven Gaines³, Pamela Matson², John Melack³, Norman Miller⁴.

Carnegie Institution of Washington ¹, Stanford University ², University of California, Santa Barbara ³, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory ⁴

ABSTRACT- Future climate changes in California will occur in a context of widespread human impacts, including large areas of agricultural and urban development, extensive biological invasions, and numerous threats to rare and endangered species. These human impacts will complicate decisions about adapting to climate change, often narrowing the range of acceptable options. Projected climate changes for California are similar to (but more uncertain than) simulated changes in the global mean, with substantial winter warming and modest summer warming over the next century. Precipitation and sea level will probably increase modestly. Effects of these changes on California's agricultural and natural ecosystems are likely to swirl around three key impacts: changes in water resources, changes in wildfire, and increased pressure on rare and endangered species. All three have a long history and high public awareness. Climate change will add new dimensions, new uncertainties, and new challenges.

KEYWORDS- climate change, California, water resources, rare and endangered plants and animals